Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
