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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple pattern. It often acts as a type of apology. We regret we underestimated your franchise in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the biggest resurgence is handed the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or just the most shocking upset.

But the current race is distinctly different. The group of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference champions fading and recent underperformers improving collectively. Under an ordinary year, a coach leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a chaotic and entertaining year, he's facing several other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the ideal vote could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to showcase his rare talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to spin big plays from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the organization with the kind of expectations he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. Yet this isn't a typical year!

The area where Johnson's case runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a rapid turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the leadership stuff, which was not a given after his initial public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

Following an early strong start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still